Why Fred VanVleet is the "Wing Help" that the Mavericks Need
This Offeason, FVV Addresses All Maverick Needs in One Player
This is Part II in Skip2MyLuka’s 2020 Offseason Series. Subscribe to stay up to date with new offseason essays! Previously published:
Before you waste too much of your breath commenting—yes, I know Fred Vanvleet is a guard. A small one at that.
However, in this piece I will argue that FVV actually does bring most of the things that we mean when we talk about the Mavericks needing wing help, along with all the things we need outside of it.
In terms of estimated future value, I have Fred Vanvleet as the number one addition the Mavs can make this offseason. And I believe it would be a mistake for the Mavs to forgo the chance to grab him in favor of chasing 2021’s fools gold.
On Court Fit
First, let’s establish what the Mavs are missing on court and how FVV addresses:
Perimeter Defense
When the Mavs talk about needing “wing help,” what they are really saying is shorthand for “the Mavs need players who cause friction on the perimeter”. While it would be nice, the Mavs’ biggest need is not an Anunoby proxy who is 6’8 with a +5 wingspan.
Many Mavs fans believe our most dire defensive need is an upgrade at 3 or 4 over Dorian and Kleber. I think this is simply outrageous.
Against the Clippers, in 41 minutes over the 3 games Porzingis played with both DFS and Kleber on the wing, the Mavs gave up 90 points per 100 possessions, with a net rating of just under +18 (!!!). This is against the Clipper starting frontcourt!
Without KP, the Mavs had no ability to put DFS and Kleber 1:1 against Leonard and George with a help defender at the rim—and the defense fell apart.
The frontcourt is not where the low-hanging fruit is. Upgrading defensive personnel on the bigger wing positions is going to be difficult.
What bigger wing defender is available via free agency this or next summer? Jerami Grant is expensive and arguably a worse defender than both Kleber and Finney-Smith.
Next..? Crickets.
It seems that fortifying the 3 and 4 positions with bench depth—via the draft, or in MLE guys like Derrick Jones Jr, Wes Matthews, Jae Crowder, or Kent Bazemore—rather than trying to upgrade, is the better use of resources.
When we look at the deficiencies in a lineup featuring Luka/DFS/Maxi/KP, what the Mavs desperately need is a guy who can chase shooters around screens for 35 mpg.
They need a guy to harass and hound opposing ballhandlers.
Fred Vanvleet is that guy.
A stout 1-2 defender who spearheaded the point of attack for the league’s second ranked defense. A champion who gave fits to the greatest ever off-ball player in the 18-19 finals.
Vanvleet is elite. Both on and off ball. While not Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart, there are few guards as impactful on defense.
FVV’s standout defensive attributes:
Expert screen navigator: awareness/strength/low center of gravity
Makes pick and roll handlers uncomfortable, rushed, off-balance
Top notch anticipation in passing lanes: led league in deflections, 4th in steals per game (no 19-20 Mav in top 37)
Off-ball: great help defender, great dig technique
Multiple-effort, high-IQ rotations
Subtly good rotations at rim w/ Dirk-esque swipe down
Executed many schemes under Nick Nurse
Strength/Girth to switch and guard up
He’s not exploitable, either. Despite being a small guard, he displays more of the attributes we need on the perimeter than you’d find out of most “wings.” I’m far less concerned matching up Mack Truck 6’1 FVV onto 3s and 4s than most of the league’s strength-lacking wings. Primarily matching up Vanvleet on 3s in a pinch or utilizing a switching defense are possibilities.
Secondary Playmaking (w/ plus off-ball profile)
It’s no secret that the Mavs need more live dribble creators who can coexist on the floor next to Luka. However, it’s hard to find a playmaker who can handle the rigors of the playoffs on the other end. Enter Fred Vanvleet.
I won’t belabor the point here. FVV checks just about every box for what we need in a secondary creator off of Luka.
Pull-Up Three: ✅
PnR Scoring Threat while Making Passing Reads: ✅
Dribble Penetration: ✅
Catch and Shoot Three: ✅
Off Movement C/S Three: ✅
The area on offense where I would knock FVV is solo self-creation. FVV is not going to regularly get great looks for himself in isolation. Luckily, the Mavs have Luka and KP to pick up the slack for him.
Additionally, FVV is not going to take full advantage of the Mavs’ 5-out bigs—although he’s an improved finisher, he’s not an above the rim athlete and he’s a below average straight line driver.
Two-Way Perimeter Play
This is the kicker. Frankly—while the Mavs need perimeter defense and secondary playmaking w/ plus shooting—what they really need more than anything is someone who can do both.
The Mavericks have very few players who can scale on both ends of the court to mid-late playoff rounds. Among them: Kleber, Finney-Smith, and Porzingis (to an extent). Luka and KP are passable-to-solid defenders who must be kept on the court for their offensive contributions.
However, the Mavs have precisely 0 guards who could play 30+ mpg in a 2nd round playoff series. That’s a problem. For all the talk of the Mavs’ need for wings, it strikes me as odd that no one mentions the need for two-way guard play.
Players who fulfill the aforementioned defensive requirements and provide value on and off ball are a lot rarer than you may think. Checking all of these boxes in one player can be a silver bullet of sorts for the Mavs.
With FVV, they would be able to solve the majority of their starting/closing lineup deficiencies in one player—meaning adding him would eliminate the need to replace any more starters.
He would join a group of DFS, Luka, Maxi, and KP which can defend, create offense, space the floor, and hit shots at a championship level for years to come.
Intangibles Fit
Tim McMahon reported a Mavs staffer lamenting the team’s lack of “dogs”. I don’t think there are many players more exemplary of that attitude than Fred Vanvleet.
While guys like Luka, Dorian, and Maxi demonstrate grit to extent, the Mavs could use more grinders on this team. Vanvleet would come in as easily the biggest tone-setter on the team from a toughness perspective.
Another benefit of Vanvleet is locker room leadership. Having your two best players be non-native English speaking, sub-25 year olds fosters a vocal-leadership void at the top of your roster. While these two will improve in this regard, bringing in FVV’s championship pedigree will provide a boost to the Mavs’ on and off court leadership factor.
This is a cop-out analysis but there is something to be said about guys who are just winning players. Fred VanVleet was a culture-setter on an uberculture team in the Raptors. He brings the things that are hard to quantify but show up in the win column:
Professionalism
High IQ, rarely flustered
Defensive scheme execution, hard rotations, winning plays
Age Fit
Fred Vanvleet on a 4 year deal would align his prime with the young Mavs’ Superstars entering theirs. It’s rare that an UFA of Vanvleet’s caliber is available at the age of 26.
Roster Building Fit
FVV should be the plan 1a for the Mavs.
Trading to land the third star involves giving up considerable amounts of both assets and talent. Jrue, Paul, Oladipo, and Hayward require giving up some combination of 2020’s 1st, Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber, Jalen Brunson, and other draft considerations.
4 years of FVV + 9 years of cost-controlled Bane + T. Bey + Maxi’s contract is a better haul than Jrue Holiday or Chris Paul’s 1-2 year deals.
Addition by free agency is a far more optimal path for the Mavericks. So why use that space on FVV now with 2021 and the promise of Giannis looming?
When you consider the free agents available after Giannis (and if we agree Kawhi, Lebron, AD, et al are not coming), the options don’t look so great. Oladipo is older and has a number of uncertainties around his impact and health. Imagine Oladipo and KP sitting in suits watching Luka battle in the playoffs. Criminal.
The same could be said for potential-FA, Jrue Holiday—though its more about age and size of contract with him. Josh Richardson and Otto Porter are both older and not as good as FVV, plus we’d have them one year later. Who else even comes close behind them?
This means that if Giannis signs elsewhere, or worse, signs the supermax this summer, then its highly unlikely that you’d be able to land someone who provides more impact than FVV over the next 4 years.
FVV would be the best free agent signing for the Mavs since the 90s or early 00s. We shouldn’t waffle.
How it Happens?
Of course, any discussion of the Mavs adding personnel must be paired with the loss of personnel that may come with it.
Hardaway Jr is the consensus ‘most-liquid’ asset. If the Mavs are to sign Vanvleet, they are going to part with Hardaway. And if the Mavs lose Hardaway, they’ll have to replace:
Dynamic Volume Shooter
While FVV wasn’t 14th in the league with 2.9 three pointers made per game—like Hardaway—he was actually not far off at 21st with 2.7. Luckily, FVV replaces what THJ does on offense, plus more, and far exceeds his contributions on the defensive end. He's also younger. This is a no brainer upgrade.
4 years and $90m
Many of the people who say that $20m+ is too high for FVV are the same people who were dying to give $15m/year to Pat Beverly and Danny Green last offseason (Quit telling on yourselves!).
This is the figure I’ve come to which may slightly overpay FVV, but seems to be out of the range of what Toronto would be willing to pay the home-grown, undrafted free agent.
If the money’s remotely close, I find it hard to believe that FVV would prefer playing on the Knicks, Hawks, Suns, or Pistons than hitching his wagon to all-time-great-in-the-making, Luka Doncic. FVV also likely understands his limitations as a first or second option on offense.
This leaves the Dallas Mavericks. I firmly believe that the Mavericks have the inside track to Vanvleet if they are willing to make the money described work.
Despite the fact that the Mavs don’t have cap space ‘on paper’, I’ve argued the Mavs are players in free agency if they choose to be. There are relatively simple scenarios to obtaining FVV on a 4 year, $90m deal.
THJ Opt Out
If Tim Hardaway decides to seek a longer term extension on the marketplace this summer, the road to FVV is fairly straightforward.
Mavs will have ~$21m in cap space and can make an offer in UFA of 4/$90m
THJ Opt In
Luckily for these routes, the decision to pull the trigger on trades and other space clearing moves does not need to come until a VanVleet verbal agreement was come to. Whether THJ opts in or not, the Mavs have fairly straightforward moves to make it work.
Sign and trade Hardaway and a 2nd to Toronto (if amenable)
Trade Hardaway into cap space (~$21m)
Trade Justin Jackson and a 2nd into space, stretch Hardaway (~$20m)
Why He Doesn’t Come
There’s a chance VanVleet simply goes to the highest bidder. After all, this is his one chance to cash out big. My working theory is that even the bottom dwelling teams with cap space would not be willing to go much higher than the 4/$90m figure I’ve referenced. When the difference in contract size is minor enough, guys will choose winning situations.
Many I’ve spoken to have pushed back against the idea that FVV would want to come in as a clear third option, and on a team so heliocentric as the Mavs. I think this is misguided. Toronto plays an egalitarian offense which featured guys ahead of him like Pascal Siakam and Kawhi Leonard. Even this season, Vanvleet oscillated between the first and third option with Siakam and Lowry, sometimes taking the ball up, and certainly comfortable playing off-ball.
There’s a sense that VanVleet might show extreme loyalty and deference towards the franchise which took a chance on and developed him. Would he be willing to take less just to lock up a big payday with Toronto and not explore outside options? This is the reason that most keeps me up at night. If FVV doesn’t consider other options because of contentedness and familiarity, the Mavs can do little to change that.
While these are certainly potential snags, I don’t think any is existential to the Mavs’ pursuit.
What may hurt the Mavs pursuit is the scenario where Tim opts in and the Mavs are unable to sign-and-trade or outright trade Hardaway. The reputational hit to the Mavs for the necessary stretching of Hardaway might be too much to bear.
Personally, I think the Mavs should bite the bullet and short term PR hit in order to lock in a championship roster over the next 4 years if the opportunity presents itself.